the opinionist

The rhetoric of a re-emerging ‘Cold War’ with Russia continues to ratchet and the outcome seems all too convenient for so many. The early 80’s - the height of aggression between the Western nations and the evil Soviets is looked up by so many with a fond - almost gentle longing. The chaos of a post-9/11 world - with so many emerging nations scrambling to apply newfound wealth into military, social, and economic squabbles with neighbors, former friends and definitive enemies - … this chaos is laid at the feet of a wholly inadequate U.S. administration and we’re all feeling the effects of their ineptitude.

So Russia’s swift and brutal spanking of Georgia for daring stretch relations further West, NATO-bound, and friendly to U.S. geo-political ambitions - provides such a wonderful opportunity for eager to declare an eager rush to the days of Soviet aggression and U.S.-led honor and nobility for the sake of Democracy and Freedom etc etc.

In April of 2008 Former Russian President Vladimir Putin “strongly criticized NATO’s eastward expansion plans” … “but ruled out chances of a new Cold War, insisting instead that Moscow wants to be friends with the Western military alliance.” - a story printed by AP. (link).

The story continued, “[Putin speech] The emergence of the powerful military bloc at our borders will be seen as a direct threat to Russia’s security,” Putin said. “I heard them saying today that the expansion is not directed against Russia. But it’s the potential, not intentions that matters.”

The world continued to turn and the West continued to lay pressure on Russia with wider and deeper agreements with former Soviet-ruled nation states eagerly joining NATO, missile defense pacts, and the stationing of U.S. / NATO forces on their territory.

A moderate and wholly honest politician of firm stature and sincerity has finally admitted what no Western leader is willing to admit. The Western Nations pushed Russia too hard, too fast and without giving a damn for the consequences.

In a speech given today by former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating, an honest and wholly refreshing sincerity:

Article posted in the Age publication (theage.com.au):

PAUL Keating has accused Tony Blair, Bill Clinton and George Bush of squandering the chance for peace and co-operation created by the Soviet Union’s collapse.

Instead, he said the West had “ring-fenced” Russia, treating it as a virtual enemy at a time when the risk of Moscow launching nuclear war by mistake was greater than during the Cold War.

In a speech at the Melbourne Writers Festival yesterday, the former Labor prime minister criticised Western leaders for seeking to impose democracy on other countries at a time when American power was in decline.

World leaders needed a strategy based on “the progress of human existence and not simply the propagation of democracy”, he said.

Western leaders had failed to grasp a potential “new era of peace and co-operation” created by the end of the Soviet Union in 1990, and failed to find a place for Russia in the global “strategic fabric”.

“(Former US president) George H. Bush talked about a New World Order, then lost to Bill Clinton. And what happened then? Well, nothing happened then! The Americans cried victory and walked off the field.”

The Clinton administration “rashly decided to ring-fence Russia” by inviting former Soviet-dominated states to join NATO. “By doing so, the US failed to learn one of the lessons of history - that the victor should be magnanimous with the vanquished,” he said.

As a result, NATO states now were on the borders of Russia, which kept its nuclear arsenal on full alert. “This posture automatically carries with it the possibility of a Russian nuclear attack by mistake,” Mr Keating said.

Russia had allowed its nuclear surveillance and early warning systems to “ossify”. To compensate, it kept its nuclear arsenal on full alert.

“This means that while the Cold War is over, the risk of a mistaken pre-emptory (nuclear) response has increased,” he said.

Mr Keating said the alienation of Russia played into the hands of Russian nationalists while weakening the hand of liberal democrats.

“The old West then complains about Vladimir Putin being a poorly disguised Russian autocrat and nationalist when the West has played a large role in creating him,” he said.

If nuclear weapons were the world’s most pressing problem, its greatest challenge was building “a truly representative structure of world governance which reflects global realities but which is also equitable and fair”, he said.

“For two Clinton presidential terms and two George W. Bush terms, the world has been left without such a structure - certainly one able to accommodate Russia and the great states like China and India.”

Instead, they had left the world with a template forged at the end of World War II, “where Germany and Japan were left on the outside, and still are 60 years later, and in which China and India are tolerated and palely humoured”.

He said the world was witnessing the eclipse of American power but recent US presidents had done nothing “to better shape the institutions of world governance”. Nor did “old powers” like Britain or France offer any help. Former British Labour prime minister Tony Blair had offered nothing new or free-thinking - “he thought being an American acolyte was all that was required”.

Brilliant speech. Long over due and very needed.

Related Business Week Article : “The New Cold War?”

August 23rd, 2008 | Tags: Bush, Georgia, NATO, Paul Keating, Putin, Russia, U.S. | Category: Politics |  Email This Post | Leave a comment

U.S. Sen. John Kerry’s townhall speech at the University turned into a hideous scene of excessive and vicious police force when a punk kid asked one too many questions. Watch the video and let me know if your stomach turns rotten or not!

There is no doubt the kid should have put his bravado firmly in check. Absolutely. The kid should have played by the rules of polite and civil behavior. Certainly. The kid deserved to be dragged by four policemen and Tasered as he screamed in pain? I don’t bloody think so!

The first thought that came to mind after watching the video? We’re trying to bring freedom and democracy to the Iraqi people and an obnoxious (yes!) Student at the University of Florida is Tasered for asking one too many questions to a U.S. Senator? The mainstream media has ignored this sickening spectacle. I’m disgusted.

More coverage at the StarBanner news (and clearly but shorter video).

September 18th, 2007 | Category: Kerry, Police Brutality, Taser, University of Florida |  Email This Post | Comments (2)

Finally some common sense thoughts on the ‘War on Terror’. Really little more to add beyond posting the well-intentioned comments by Archbishop Desmond Tutu in an interview with CNN’s Mary LLoyd.

Article posted on CNN — “Tutu: Poverty fueling terror.”

HONG KONG, China (CNN) — The global “war on terror” can’t be won if people are living in “desperate” conditions, Archbishop Desmond Tutu told CNN.

Archbishop Desmond Tutu says “war on terror” will be thwarted by poverty, disease and ignorance.

“You can never win a war against terror as long as there are conditions in the world that make people desperate — poverty, disease, ignorance, et cetera,” the Nobel laureate said.

Tutu is in Hong Kong, where he is due to give a lecture on conflict resolution, reconciliation and forgiveness.

He said the disparity between the rich and poor in parts of the world causes instability and insecurity, but added that he was hopeful the relationship between the two was becoming clear.

“I think people are beginning to realize that you can’t have pockets of prosperity in one part of the world and huge deserts of poverty and deprivation and think that you can have a stable and secure world,” he said.

The former head of South Africa’s Anglican church is an advocate of reconciliation, and he often speaks out against violence and is a frequent critic of human rights abusers.

Tutu was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1984 for his vocal opposition and leadership against South Africa’s apartheid system — a government-sanctioned policy of racial separation which ended in 1994.

September 17th, 2007 | Category: Desmond Tutu, South Africa, War on Terror |  Email This Post | Leave a comment

According to MENAFN News, Iraqi Oil Minister, Hussain Al-Shahristani, has today announced plans to construct an oil and natural gas pipeline to both Iran and Syria - scheduled to begin construction in 2008.

Both neighboring countries have been long accused by the United States of meddling inside Iraq and are both accused of fueling the ongoing insurgency against U.S. forces.

At the same time … the U.S. has begrudgingly recognized the role both nations can play in soothing the civil unrest between the religious and tribal factions inside and across Iraq. Joint talks between the Iraq, Iran, Syria and the U.S. have yielded some promise, but for whom?

Iraq must increase its oil output significantly before it can improve its long term economic self-sustanence and the pipeline deal appears to be a win-win for all nations involved.

As previously mentioned, Iran might have some of the world’s largest oil reserves but its centralized economy, run by inept and corrupt Mullah’s, has done little to maintain nor invest in its refinery infrastructure and Iran’s domestic demand for energy has far outpaced its energy supplies. Iran needs Iraqi energy appetite and recent rioting across Iran demonstrates the scale of the energy crunch faced by the Iranian government.

I wonder what the U.S. will make of the pipeline announcement?

September 10th, 2007 | Category: Iran, Iraq, Pipeline, Syria, oil |  Email This Post | Comments (1)

Have just finished reading an eighty page report by Dr Dan Plesch and Martin Butcher entitled, “Considering a war with Iran: A discussion paper on WMD in the Middle East.”

It is a compelling read full of assumptions - yes - but balanced, and disturbing.

If the U.S. is truly contemplating a unilateral attack on Iran then Hell with break loose. Read this report and consider the who’s, how’s and when’s before you break the bad news at the water cooler, dinner table and car pool.

Full Report Attached in .pdf

“Such a strike would take “shock and awe” to a new level and leave Iran with few if any conventional military capabilities to block the conventional military support to insurgents in Iraq.”

Supporting Reading :

- The National Security Study 2006
- GlobalSecurity.Org
- Time Magazine | “Prelude to an Attack on Iran”

Related Opinionist Posts :
Cold War II | Russia Gives Iran Long Range Offensive Capabilities
A Tactical Strike on Iran | ‘Perfect Storm’ Conditions?
Iranian Brinksmanship and a Rancid Dead Duck Bush Administration
The Best Iraq Exit Strategy for U.S. is Through Iran?

All IRAN related posts

August 30th, 2007 | Category: Ahmadinejad, Bush Administration, Dr Dan Plesch, Iran, Iran Attack, Martin Butcher, Unilateralism |  Email This Post | Comments (2)

Article in Time.com from Saturday August 18 by Robert Baer.

Entitled, “Prelude to an attack on Iran.”

Begins:

Reports that the Bush Administration will put Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on the terrorism list can be read in one of two ways: it’s either more bluster or, ominously, a wind-up for a strike on Iran. Officials I talk to in Washington vote for a hit on the IRGC, maybe within the next six months. And they think that as long as we have bombers and missiles in the air, we will hit Iran’s nuclear facilities. An awe and shock campaign, lite, if you will. But frankly they’re guessing; after Iraq the White House trusts no one, especially the bureaucracy.

As with Saddam and his imagined WMD, the Administration’s case against the IRGC is circumstantial. The U.S. military suspects but cannot prove that the IRGC is the main supplier of sophisticated improvised explosive devices to insurgents killing our forces in Iraq and Afghanistan. The most sophisticated version, explosive formed projectiles or shape charges, are capable of penetrating the armor of an Abrams tank, disabling the tank and killing the crew.

[Full Article]

August 21st, 2007 | Category: Bush, Iran, Revolutionary Guard, Robert Baer |  Email This Post | Leave a comment

Associated Press story published in the Washington Post, November 2, 1922. [page 2]

Arctic Ocean Getting Warm; Seals Vanish and Icebergs Melt.

The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm.

Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds.

[end]

This is posted not to prove an opinion either to prove or disprove the notion of climate change - but to simply say this topic is complex and needs a moderate, careful and open debate by the scientific community and the governments of the world.
The downside is way too large to simply shuffle evidence one way or another without an agreed / non-partisan consensus.

August 15th, 2007 | Category: climate change, global warming |  Email This Post | Comments (1)

The 2008 Democratic presidential hopefuls gathered this evening in the constantly-under-construction city of Chicago and the always-charming Soldier Field – home of the Chicago Bears. The insanely hot and humid weather a provided stark contrast to the frigid relations between front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton (D - N.Y.) and second-place Sen. Barack Obama (D. – Ill.) and the distant third-place candidate, former senator John Edwards. So was there any camaraderie among the three musketeers? Definitely not!

Each candidate entered tonight’s debate with a mission that had to be addressed quickly. Pre-debate, USAToday/Gallup reported that Edwards trails in third place with just 12 percent of the likely Democratic primary electorate — far behind Sen. Clinton (48 percent) and Sen. Obama (26 percent). Edwards’s mission: to find his sweet spot and demonstrate his worth in this debate – or else remain increasingly relegated to “also ran” status and out of serious contention.

The mission for Sen. Clinton, clearly the favorite of both the mainstream media and her Republican adversaries? Correct an ambiguity over her expressed trust and affection for the influencers of legislation: K Street lobbyists. For Sen. Obama - recently ridiculed by Republican presidential wannabe, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney for his ‘Jane Fonda to Dr. Strangelove’ metamorphosis – the mission was to either steer clear of foreign policy assertions or clearly and succinctly explain his desire to invade Pakistan and attack President Bush’s unstable ally in the “War on Terror,” General Musharraf.

The second tier of candidates clearly entered the debate with absolutely nothing to lose except the cash-debilitating effects of being labeled a “hopeless” candidate with little or no chance of becoming anything more than a cute election-process-tchotchke.
More »

August 8th, 2007 | Category: 2008, Barack Obama, Biden, Bush, Chris Dodd, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Kucinich, Presidential Election |  Email This Post | Comments (4)

CNBC’s Mad Money host Jim Cramer - says what needs to be said. People are hurting now. Jobs are being affected. Homes are being lost and companies are collapsing. How’s your investment net worth in recent weeks?

August 6th, 2007 | Category: Armageddon, BRIC, CNBC, China, Emerging Markets, Federal Reserve, Jim Cramer, Stock Market, Sub-Prime |  Email This Post | Comments (2)