If You Were Ahmadinejad … Wouldn’t You Go Nuclear?
Some fascinating news reports and opinion pieces have been published today in various rags about Iran’s faltering oil industry and the nation’s unsustainable demand for energy. A mixed bag of conclusions are made about the success (or lack) of trade sanctions against Iran, the nuclear standoff, and various fluffy next step assumptions.
This is fine and dandy but where we (in the West) frequently fail … is in our inability to put ourselves in the shoes of the Mullah in Iran. They just don’t fit our flavor of society and our taste for democracy. Oh, and they’re evil - but purely as an aside, of course! This is true of the negligent assumptions made by the Bush Administration, the intelligence services and McDonalds about the appetite for fast-food products in Baghdad and it is equally true of the West’s handling of Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
I’m always the first to highlight and criticise my impetuous demand for black-and-white explanations of complex matters. For example - supersymmetric string theory aka SuperString Theory. I find no joy in my lacking the basic understanding of this most easily explained flavor of theoretical physics. This is especially true when my six-year-old son patiently tries to explain the subject of quantum mechanics to me over dinochicken nuggets and potato waffles.
So, when it comes to the issue of Iran - my question is ‘What would Ahmadinejad do?’ Wouldn’t you go nuclear if you were this fella? Let’s ponder!
Iran has the world’s third largest oil reserves yet it is unable to meet its own growing appetite for energy (oil, gas). The high centralized - Sovietesque - economy has been mismanaged by the clerics with remarkably ineffective and wholly wasteful decisions. It suffers from an under funded infrastructure and the blessings of Enron-type accounting principles. This is a very real problem when the biggest industry in Iran is … the oil industry! Whoops! Unemployment is excessively high, inflation is rampant and there is an economic mailaise driven to some degree by the ‘brain drain’ of a young, educated, and highly-skilled workforce fleeing to a better life over the hill and far away!
To the rescue; it almost seems (treading carefully here!) are these lovely oil prices. When oil trades over $50 a barrel versus $16 a barrel just ten years ago - a wonderful influx of cash has given Iran an almost giddy spending opportunity.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - under political pressure from impatient citizens worn out by trade embargoes (Iran and Libya Sanctions Act 1996 (”ISLA”)) - plays the nationalism card! Iran should have nuclear power he explains. It is needed for our growing energy needs - oh and it doesn’t hurt our efforts to erase the Jewish scum from our maps - but I must reaffirm - it will be purely a domestic power play (excuse the pun). The crowd goes wild! Trust me! I’m only ad libbing a wee bit - this is scary stuff!
The Iranian clerics have all the power, of course - no surprises there! And contrary to the opinions of today’s fine media pundits, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his cleric state-sponsors -of-all-things-evil- are in a wonderful win-win position against the U.S., the slightly ambiguous European nations, the wobbly Chinese and the toothless UN / IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency).
If the world (not including the growing list of Chavez-influenced nation states) sits back and does nothing; Iran develops nuclear power and, more to the point, weapons. Ahmadinejad goes to Men’s Warehouse and buys a new suit. Nations desperate for oil to meet insanely growing economic growth (erm, China!) will continue to do the dirty behind-the-scenes deals and Russia, they’re always happy to supply the weaponry. We (the U.S.) lose, therefore Iran wins.
If (all of) the U.N. Security Council meets in a very very cold Hell and agrees to insanely-damaging sanctions. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will do something very naughty indeed to Israel and the U.S. - as promised!. The MiddleEast is plunged into a regional conflict that drags the U.S. and Europe into taking sides against Russia and China. KaBoom!. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad say hello to your 72 virgins. Nicely done old boy!
If Israel launches a preemptive low-yield tactical nuclear strike against Iranian nuclear projects - ‘erm - KaBoom!.
If the U.S. somehow finds a few more regiments, some more bullets and a couple spare aircraft carriers, some willing neighbors and world wide support for military action. Erm, that’s not going to happen.
So; obvious outcome: The world capitulates - grants President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council - in-between Russian and China. The U.S. and Great Britain promise to always allow President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to hold Madagascar when playing Risk. France and Germany declare adoption of the Islamic faith. Everything looks rosey and the Iranian national pride is restored. President Kucinich meets President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for tea every second Thursday in the greater-Iranian city of Baghdad.
So rather than a jolly good - ‘Now look here Mr. Ahmadinejad. Terribly sorry old chap but we’re going to have to take your toys - but don’t worry - we won’t attack you.’ position … perhaps we need to look at it (the problem) through the eyes of the scary mullahs!. If you were Ahmadinejad … wouldn’t you go Nuclear?
R
sources :
- International Herald Tribune - Iran is Actually Short of Oil | Muddled Mullahs
- LA Times - U.S. Puts Squeeze on Iran Oil Fields
- WashingtonPost - Prior Article - The One Sentence Iran Policy
- Wikipedia - Iran
- GlobalSecurity.org - Iran | Oil | Military
- Institute for International Economics - Economic Sanctions, Oil & Iran
Posted on January 8th, 2007 under Iran, Iraq, U.S., defence, israel, nuclear, oil • 
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