the opinionist

After fifteen years of introspection, economic and political struggle and despair, Russia appears to be rapidly reclaiming its lost strength - economic and political - and is expressing its renewed confidence as a powerful alternative to the United States in world affairs.

Economic:

Russian president Vladimir Putin used his annual nationally broadcast news conference (1200 reporters from global media outlets) to proudly confirm the Russian economy as stabilized and in a position for major expansion and development.

Already one of the world’s largest oil and natural gas exporters - Russia intends to invest heavily in its energy industry with every ambition of becoming the largest oil producer in the world.

First Deputy Prime-Minister (and Presidential hopeful) Dmitry Medvedev earlier this week informed the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that Russia may become the world’s largest oil producer in the very near future.

Quoted by the Russian News and Information Agency, Medvedev said, “Russia has every chance of becoming the No. 1 oil producer, leaving Saudi Arabia behind.” He added that Russia is already the world’s largest producer of natural gas and the fourth largest producer of electricity.

As with all of the world’s major energy suppliers - Russia’s economy has enjoyed record high oil prices that has allowed economic growth of over 6%, with single digit inflation “for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union” and construction had benefited also.

Putin did hedge his optimism but suggesting the Russian economy remained inefficient - saying Russia used three or four times as much energy per unit of economic output as other industrialized nations.

Of course oil and natural gas are not the only Russian exports enjoying a sales boom! In the last two years Russia has reportedly over-taken the United States as the largest global arms dealer - with many highly controversial and largely inconvenient arms deals to nations opposed to America and its perceived hegemonic influence.

Unlike the United State’s newfound conscience-biting decision to not sell weapons to nations with a troubled history or ambiguous intentions; the Russian military industrial complex can’t seem to provide nearly enough missiles, fighter planes, tanks, bombs and guns fast for its globe-trotting arms dealers.

Anti-ship sunburn missiles for the Chinese

Anti-missile defense systems for Iran

Anti-tank missiles for Syria

Assault rifles for Venezuela

Russian Fighter Planes for India

The list of arms sales for nations - good, bad, and ugly - reads like shopping day at Costco.

Political:

Russia caused considerable anguish for Western Europe and former Soviet member countries when it raised (severely) the price of Russian oil and gas - on which a significant portion of the European continent are highly dependent. President Putin was accused by all parties of using its vast energy resources as a weapon - of political and economic blackmail.

This is particularly accurate for former Soviet states accused by Russia of making cosy ties with the West and against the interests of the Russian state.

Of course Putin continues to deny such heavy tactics - and in yesterday’s press conference he reaffirmed his desire only to get ‘fair market prices’ for Russian energy products.

On the greater world stage - President Putin continues to build on his desire to be seen by world nations as a counter-weight to the grotesquely unpopular American foreign policy. Putin is involved in Iran - seeking a balance between tempering U.S. impatient with Iran versus Iranian determination to develop a nuclear capability.

Russia continues to declare more than mild discomfort over the rapid expansion of NATO by former Soviet Bloc countries - including Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. With Georgia, the Ukraine, Croatia, Macedonia and Albania all gleefully seeking NATO membership sooner rather than later.

It was reported today that President Putin has pledged to come up with a “highly effective” response to the U.S. anti-missile systems it has placed inside the Czech Republic and Poland - to detect and shoot down hostile missiles from ‘rogue nations’.

Putin sees anti-ballistic missile defenses parked along its border with countries that formerly bowed to the glory days of Soviet dominance disconcerting.

“Iran, ” Putin said, “did not possess long-range ballistic missiles, only medium-range devices.”

Reuters continues to report President Putin as saying, “Russia already had systems capable of overcoming missile defenses but promised a future generation of weapon on which missile defense systems will have absolutely no effect.”

It is also reported that Putin also complained about Washington’s decision last year to impose sanctions on Russian arms firms because of sales to Iran and Syria. The real motive, he said, was to stop Russian arms firms from taking business away from U.S. rivals.

“We have taken a serious niche on the arms market in recent years and will continue to boost our position,” Putin told the news conference. “I consider (the) sanctions as a sign of unfair competition”.

Interesting & Challenging Times:

President Vladimir Putin’s second term ends next year - 2008. Since he took office on December 31st 1999 - he has helped drag Russia out of an economic malaise and his record-high popularity (in vast contrast to President Bush’s) demonstrates the pride everyday Russians are reclaiming for Mother Russia.

The media reports on two possible successors to Putin. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and First Deputy Prime Minster Dmitry Medvedev. But, by all accounts, Putin recognizes the need for fair elections - which should be fascinating when opposition parties inside Russia have all but been squashed and media corporations renationalized and programmed directly from the Kremlin.

Its not all roses and pink champagne for the Russian elite. Despite state-managed optimism in President Putin, the economy and Russia’s newfound ascension to super power status (once again) - strong and potentially crippling social woes need to be addressed and quickly by Putin’s successor.

In a report by the Chicago Tribune, it is said alcohol is destroying rural Russia and “those that don’t have cattle or a job, drink!”

The report suggests alcohol abuse is believed to be one of the driving forces behind Russia’s shrinking population and falling life expectancy. Nearly a third of deaths reported in Russia stems from alcohol.

To make matters worse; Russia is being hit hard by an HIV/Aids epidemic on a scale far worse than any other nation in Europe. The BBC reports around 340,000 registered people live with HIV in Russia - but the number could be unofficially at least four times higher.

Though the BBC reports Russia is waking up to the catastrophe, it has the fastest-growing AIDS epidemic in Europe - with 100 new HIV positive infections registered every day.

To curb the rapid decrease in Russia’s population, President Putin was reported last year to have instructed the Russian Parliament to vastly increase child support programs for women that chose to have a second child.

CBS reported, “[Putin] ordered parliament to more than double monthly child support payments to 1,500 rubles (about $55) and added that women who choose to have a second baby will receive 250,000 rubles ($9,200), a staggering sum in a country where average monthly incomes hover close to $330.”

These are fascinating times. Russia’s growing influence in world affairs is being seen positively by many nations as a counter-weight to the disastrous foreign policy of the Bush administration.

Perhaps the next U.S. administration will have time to fix fences and repair the multitude of burnt bridges - before the U.S. is relegated to obscurity.

Posted on February 1st, 2007 under 2008, Dmitry Medvedev, Elections, Georgia, NATO, Natural Gas, Putin, Russia, Sergei Ivanov, oil •  Email This Post • RSS 2.0 feed • Leave a response, or trackback